What to expect from Iran’s Presidential elections?

Eight of the 700 presidential candidates have been short-listed by Iran’s Guardian Council. Five of these candidates are conservatives with close links to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Prior to the elections, radical candidates have been banned to contest in the elections including Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who played an important role in Iran’s revolution and was Iran’s president from 1989 to 1997.

Efandiar Rahim Mashaie, President Ahmadeinejad’s assistant, a potential candidate who pursues reformist and moderate policy, has also been banned due to his differences with Khamenei.

Observers in the region predict that Iranian voters don’t have many choices as most of the short-listed candidates are conservatives.

Back in the 2009 elections, street marches organized by various parties attracted a huge number of people. This year’s campaigning programme is carried out quietly without any marches and posters. Campaigning activities involved just three televised debates, which failed to inspire voters. The gloomy atmosphere plus the absence of potential candidates, have cast a shadow on the elections.

Analysts said Iranians’ primary concern now is the economy heavily affected by international sanctions concerning the country’s nuclear programme. Inflation in Iran is now reported at 29.8% and the unemployment rate reaches 14%. The value of the Iranian Rial has decreased 80% since 2012 and the country’s exports were down by 40%. Iran’s civilian nuclear program is estimated to cost Iran US$100 billion as the country has lost its revenue from oil and foreign investment.

Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program shows no sign of cooling down. In another move to intensify its embargo on Iran, Washington last week blacklisted nearly 40 Iranian companies, which are suspected of having hidden their assets and provided billions of US dollars to the Iranian government. This has been the 4th time in a week that Washington increased its sanctions on Iran to step up pressure on the country’s nuclear program.

Earlier, the Obama administration decided to apply sanctions to the petro-chemical and automobile sectors and more than 50 Iranian officials.

Iranians are now in dire need of a president who can revive the economy and promote the image of a friendly and peaceful Iran. Analysts speculate that said the elections will unlikely ease tensions and international sanctions, the main factor to revive the economy. None of the eligible candidates is competent enough to provide any solution to the country’s pending problems.

According to Iran’s constitution, even though the President has the executive power like signing treaties with other countries and international organisations, he has no authority in the foreign policy, the armed force or the nuclear policy, which are under the control of the Supreme Leader.

Therefore, analysts note that with most of the candidates being conservatives, the transfer of power will just be symbolic and Iran’s political arena will remain mostly unchanged. They also predict that Iran’s policy might toughen and stagnation will continue, possibly leading to military confrontation.