Korbsook Lamsuri, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, has said that Vietnam, India and Myanmar are tough rivals and that Vietnam is likely to take over Thailand’s current position in the next five years.

The US Department of Agriculture has forecast that Thailand and Vietnam will each export 6.5 million tonnes of rice this year.

Both countries accounted for half the total 35 million tonnes traded last year, but their exports decreased slightly as India has emerged as a potential rice exporter with an increasing share of the global market.

With a bumper harvest and large stockpile last year, India’s rice exports doubled to 4.2 million tonnes last year from just 2.2 million tonnes in 2010, and the figure is expected to rise sharply to 6 million tonnes in 2012.

However, it is said that the world’s second most populous country will limit rice exports in the near future to feed its own population and ensure national food security.

Meanwhile, Myanmar, which used to be the rice granary of Asia, is striving to shore up rice production to become a potential rice exporter in the coming years.

Thailand’s recent decision to buy up rice from farmers is driving up domestic and export rice prices. At local supermarkets, a 5-kg rice bag now costs 185 Thai Baht compared to just 127 Baht (US$4) a year ago.

According to Korbsook Lamsuri, the government’s recent decision is a major obstacle to Thailand’s rice exports, reducing the export volume by 50 percent to 700,000 tonnes in the first two months of 2012.

Thailand is listing the FOB price of its white rice at US$550/tonne, US$100 higher than India’s, and the government plans to raise it to US$800/tonne.

On February 23, Indonesia announced its plan to import 2 million tonnes this year to ensure national food security, and the volume will be delivered under contracts signed between governments.

In the face of low demand in the market, Thailand is looking to sell its rice through government contracts. Analysts have said the Thai government is likely to ship a maximum of 3 million tonnes under such contracts.