Syrian peace talks in quagmire as rebels prepare for more war

Intense fighting has left Syria's partial ceasefire in tatters. The truce was brokered by the United States and Russia to pave the way for the first peace talks attended by rebel factions since the crisis began five years ago.

Those talks, taking place under U.N. auspices in Geneva, also appear to have collapsed this week. The opposition says it has called a "pause" to negotiations, although it is reluctant to accept blame for the collapse by walking out altogether.

"If this ends now, it will be over for at least a year ... The Russians will steamroll -- taking advantage of a U.S. vacuum," the Western diplomat said, referring to fears Washington will be preoccupied by November's U.S. presidential election.

"There will be three million more refugees and thousands more dead," said the diplomat, who declined to be identified while describing a scenario world powers still hope to avoid. "If we all leave Geneva, I don’t see the process continuing.”

Damascus negotiators say the presidency of Bashar al-Assad is non-negotiable while the opposition sees removal of the president as a prerequisite and complains of no progress on an end to violence, humanitarian access and political detainees.

The Geneva talks aim to end a war that has killed more than 250,000 people, created the world's worst refugee crisis, allowed for the rise of the Islamic State group and drawn in regional and major powers. Russia's intervention in the conflict beginning late last year has swayed the war in Assad's favor.

The already widely violated truce began fraying more quickly some two weeks ago near Aleppo, where the Syrian army accused rebel groups of taking part in assaults by Islamists who are not covered by the ceasefire. Rebels say they were defending themselves from attacks by the army and its Shi'ite militia allies.

A total collapse of the Geneva talks would leave a diplomatic vacuum that could allow a further escalation of the war that is being fueled by rivalries between foreign powers including oil producers Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Seeking to ease that rivalry, U.S. President Barack Obama met Saudi Arabia's King Salman on a visit to Riyadh on April 20 and discussed the need to reinforce the partial truce in Syria and support a transition from Assad's rule.

France said it would consider with other European powers and the United States on April 25 the idea of convening a ministerial meeting of major powers in the next two weeks to work out the next steps for Syria.