Security in Afghanistan: a difficult blank to fill in

When the mandate of the NATO troops ends in 2014, the worry will redouble if bomb attacks by Taliban and Al-Qaeda terrorists continue.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) released a report on October 8 warning that the departure of NATO forces in 2014 could be followed by the government's collapse and civil war. One day earlier, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace also warned pessimistically that the Taliban might regain power in Afghanistan then.

Two Afghan intelligence officials were killed on October 8 and seven others were wounded by a car bomb in the southern province of Helmand. Before that a suicide bomb targeting a joint NATO and Afghanistan patrol car claimed the lives of 13 people including three NATO soldiers, four Afghanis, and six civilians and injuring 40 others.

To date, a total of 2,000 US troops have been killed by bombing attacks on coalition forces.  Both US and coalition troops have also been attacked by members of the Afghan security forces, including the army and police.

The ISAF had to temporarily suspend the training program for Afghani recruits following a series of attacks conducted by Afghani soldiers and policemen. But the death toll of the coalition troops can’t compare with the losses the local people have had to bear. UN statistics indicate that from 2007 to the end of August this year, more than 13,400 Afghan civilians have died in the war.

In fact, the civilian death toll has exceeded 20,000 since US troops first arrived in 2001. Although 130,000 soldiers have been deployed in Afghanistan, NATO has never been able to put down the Taliban.

Afghanistan is preparing to hold a new election following controversial presidential and parliamentary elections in 2009 and 2010. Instead of making the people believe in the current political system, President Hamid Karzai and other top leaders are trying to form a temporary coalition to cling to power. This has stirred a political struggle that could turn violent after NATO leaves.

Analysts say between now and 2014, Afghanistan will experience three crises: an economic crisis due to a decline of aid from the West, an unstable presidential election, and a crisis in security and defense. The ICG report says the Kabul Government under President Karzai will not be able to resist Taliban militants economically or militarily.

In the decade since the US and its allies entered to overthrow the Taliban regime, living conditions have remained the same where they haven’t deteriorated. The World Bank has forecast that after 2014, Afghanistan’s state budget will see a deficit of about US$7 billion a year. The country’s army will not be able to fight if they don’t receive any foreign assistance. It’s estimated that Afghanistan now needs US$10 billion to boost mine exploration and exports.

The war in Afghanistan is a war with a lot of unmet goals but NATO leaders haven’t yet admitted the truth, insisting that Afghanistan troops are strong enough to fight the insurgents. A real democracy is far away for Afghanistan while what the local is facing is their life is more risky.