Added up to this is that Vietnam’s exports will face new trade barriers put up by importers in pursuit of protectionism.

The country’s export turnover reached US$56.5 billion this year, a decrease of 9.9 percent compared to last year’s figure. Agricultural and seafood exports reached US$12.34 billion, down 6.4 percent from a year ago, fuel and mineral exports US$8.48 billion, down 34.8 percent, processing industry exports US$35.7 billion, down 2.2 percent. The country’s export turnover to many major markets has fallen - to US$9.3 billion (down 7.3 percent) in the US, and to US$20.3 billion (down 18.5 percent) in Asia compared to last year’s figures.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), global trade and the prices of some commodities fell in the first few months of the year due to a high demand for imports and the solvency of some markets, directly affecting the growth in export turnover.

Some economists predict that the global economy will see some positive changes in 2010. According to the International Monetary Fund, the world’s economic growth rate will increase by 3.1 percent by 2010, higher than the projected figure of 2.5 percent. Along with the economic growth rate, trade and investment activities will recover gradually. However, there are still unpredictable risks in the recovery of the global economy including issues such as trade protection, price fluctuations, inflation, a scarcity of materials, and energy, causing a negative impact on the economic development of many countries, especially developing countries. Therefore, to achieve a 6 percent rise in exports will be very difficult.

The MoIT says that the country’s gold exports earned US$2 billion, which contributed to this year’s export turnover of US$56.5 billion. Therefore, in 2010, Vietnam aims to achieve an export target of US$59.5 billion. 

By 2010, exports will rely on three major commodity groups including farm produce, minerals and processed industrial products. However, in 2009, agricultural and seafood exports increased sharply such as coffee by 11.3 percent, tea by 29.2 percent, pepper by 49.6 percent, rice by 28.6 percent. Therefore, it will be extremely difficult to increase the volumes of these exports next year. 

The high export growth of farm produce is attributed to the increase in export prices. It is predicted that in 2010 the export turnover from farm produce will reach US$12.9 billion, up 4.9 percent over this year. Key export items will include seafood (US$4.7 billion, up 6.8 percent), rice (US$2.75 billion, up 1.9 percent) and rubber (US$1.3 billion, up 12.1 percent).

However, in recent years Vietnamese exports have experienced many fluctuations and have depended a lot on the export price. Moreover, the price of Vietnamese exports is often lower than products of the same kind from other countries because of quality.

For many years, especially in 2008, the price of crude oil - one of Vietnam’s major exports - has risen sharply. Nevertheless, in 2010 exports of crude oil will drop by around 3.5 million tonnes as the Dung Quat oil refinery will step up production. This will see the country’s total export turnover fall by US$1.62- 1.9 billion. Furthermore, the export volume of coal will also decline by 2.5-3 million tonnes, equivalent to US$130 million. Therefore, the reduction in the two key products of crude oil and coal will reduce Vietnam’s total export turnover by over US$2.3 billion.

The MoIT says that in 2010, Vietnam’s export growth will depend much on the processing industry. Processed products are expected to earn US$38.6 billion, rising by 8.3 percent over 2009. Key exports will include garment and textiles (US$10.2 billion, up 12.7 percent) and footwear (US$4.6 billion, up 15 percent). A number of other products are also forecast to experience a high export growth, such as rubber (up 19 percent), glass (up 23.6 percent), electronics and computer accessories (up 22.4 percent), and vehicles (up 15.8 percent).

At present, manufactured and processed products account for 63 percent of the country’s total export turnover. Unfortunately, these products are likely to face more challenges in the coming year as more trade barriers will be put by importers.

As from January 1, 2010, the European Union (EU) will issue new rules concerning the import and export of fish and seafood to and from the EU following its Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing Regulation. Accordingly, seafood imported to EU market must have certificates to identify the origin of products three days before they are shipped to the EU.

In addition, the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act (CPSIA) on garments and textiles will also be imposed by the US from February 10, 2010. The CPSIA will require certificates on the quality and safety of products, which are examined and evaluated by the US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). The CPSC will strictly examine the quality of garments and textiles imported to the US, especially products for children. Violators will receive sanctions, or even be taken to court. These technical barriers will create difficulties for every country that exports products to the US, including Vietnam.