The centre said Vietnam has abundant natural resources, especially oil reserves, and is expected to secure an economic growth rate of 7.6-8 percent in 2006 – the highest in the ASEAN region, while Thailand’s economic growth is estimated at 4-4.5 percent.

During the past 10 years, Vietnam’s exports increased four fold from US$7.3 billion in 1996 to US$32.2 billion in 2005. Therefore, the country’s annual export growth rate is around 20 percent compared to Thailand’s 10 percent, as Thai exports rose from US$55.9 billion in 1996 to US$110.9 billion in 2005.

Kasikorn said that Vietnam’s export volume is now equal to one-third of Thailand’s volume. However, Vietnam will pass Thailand in the next 14 years if the current export growth rate is maintained. Kasikorn estimated that by 2020, Vietnam’s exports will reach more than US$500 billion while Thai exports will be around US$463 billion.

Regarding investment, Vietnam has approved 215 new projects, capitalised at US$1.6 billion in the first quarter, while Thailand licensed 200 projects worth US$2 billion. Investors in Vietnam and Thailand are from Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, China and the US.

The investment atmosphere in Thailand is currently gloomy due to political instability, and investors are moving to neighbouring countries, especially to Vietnam thanks to political stability.

Kasikorn also reported that tourist arrivals to Vietnam increased by 18.4 percent to 3.5 million in 2005. The country aims to receive around 3.6-3.8 million foreign tourists in 2006, which is achievable, the centre predicted.