Vietnam likely to keep inflation below 4.5% in 2023: Economists

Vice Director of the Institute of Economics – Finance under the Academy of Finance Nguyen Duc Do analysed that factors like money supply, interest rates and aggregate demand did not only cause inflation to drop sharply in the first six months of 2023, but also restrained the CPI rise in the last six months. Over the past one year, the CPI has only increased 0.17% per month on average, he noted.

Do predicted that if the rate continues to be maintained in the rest of the year, the inflation rate in 2023 will be at 2.5%, which means the target of 4.5% for this year will be surely reached.

Economist Vu Vinh Phu said that the CPI of this year will not exceed 3.8-4%, helping the country to stabilise the macro-economy and rein in the inflation.

According to the Price Management Department under the Ministry of Finance, the world's economic situation in the rest of the year has yet to show positive signals due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict. Vietnam is also experiencing slow economic growth and decline in exports due to falling demands of importers.

In the domestic market, the department highlighted a number of factors posing pressures on prices such as a 20% rise in basic salary from July 1, and an increase in commodity prices.

However, it pointed out that petrol prices are forecast to continue to fall or remain stable, while the supply of food and goods in the market has been abundant, and the global inflation may drop, helping ease the pressure on Vietnam.

Vice Director of the Price Management Department Pham Van Binh held that with the CPI growth rate as recorded in the first six months of 2023, there is a high hope to control inflation this year, enabling the flexible adjustments of the prices of some state-managed goods.

But the impact of the price adjustment of state-managed goods on the CPI in 2023 depends on the time of promulgation of legal documents on price adjustment of commodities by ministries and sectors. In addition, the fact that the core inflation is at a much higher level than general inflation indicates long-term high inflation risks, he said.

In the last months of the year, the department will continue to coordinate with ministries and local authorities to implement drastic measures on price management in a cautious and flexible manner, while giving advice to the Prime Minister and the Steering Committee for Price Management.

The department said that the CPI in the first half of this year rose 3.29% over the same period last year, which was lower than that in the same time of 2014, 2017 and 2020, but higher than the remaining years in the 2014-2023 period. Meanwhile, the core inflation rose 4.74%, the highest level in the first half of a year in the 2014-2023 period.