Ministry builds two scenarios for GDP growth in H2

In the first scenario, the yearly GDP is envisioned to expand by 6%, so the growth in the third quarter should reach 6.8% and 9% in the fourth quarter, which are 0.3 and 1.9 percentage points higher than the figures projected in the scenario drafted at the beginning of the year. On average, the monthly growth rate should reach 8% in the last six months of the year.

The second scenario estimates the yearly GDP growth at 6.5%, with the rates for Q3 and Q4 at 7.4% and 10.3%, respectively. The growth rate for the second half of the year should be 8.9%.

Towards those goals, the MPI urged ministries and localities to further remove difficulties, support production and business activities, stimulate domestic consumption, and promote investment and export.

The MPI also stressed the need to push ahead with administrative procedures reform along with decentralization to create the best possible conditions for people and enterprises.

A report of the MPI, delivered at the June meeting of the Government, said economic indicators in June had improved over May and those in Q2 were better than those in Q1.

The average CPI in the first half rose 3.39% year on year, continuing the trend of slowdown. Trade surplus reach US$12.2 billion. Investment flows showed a 4.7% increase to VND1,350 trillion (nearly US$57 billion), and over VND65 trillion was disbursed, equal to 30.5% of the yearly plan.

The report pointed to the low growth rate of the industry-construction sector, at 1.1%, as the main cause behind the low growth of GDP in the first half of the year.

MPI Minister Nguyen Chi Dung listed measures to increase the growth rate, including administrative reforms, application of digital technology in administrative procedures, removing difficulties for and support production, business and enterprises, and promoting investment and exports.