What will seafood exports be like in 2024?

In 2023, high inflation, reduced demand, large inventories, falling export prices, and difficulties occurring in domestic production and business have caused seafood export results to drop by 17% compared to figures from 2022.

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said that this year will see plenty of difficulties continue to dominate the situation relating to seafood production and exports.

Furthermore, there will be other challenges occurring which will slow down the recovery of exports next year.

The VASEP also gave 10 comments on market trends and seafood export forecasts.

​First, inflation in major countries has been contained with the global economy having bottomed out, although the recovery is slow and is thereby affecting demand for seafood consumption. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, fighting in the Middle East, and other geopolitical issues around the world certainly disrupts global trade, including seafood.

These factors have resulted in increased transportation costs and increased prices of input products for aquaculture and seafood processing.

In addition, it could also cause a new inflationary storm that will affect seafood consumption demand over the course of the year. Second, the cycle of price decline for many aquatic species may continue until the end of the first half of the year.

Third, the United States’ demand has been slow to recover and there is an increasing trend of importing cheap shrimp from Ecuador. Shrimp exports to the US will therefore be more difficult if countervailing duties (CVD) are imposed.

Fourthly, the Chinese market’s demand has recovered strongly, despite prices being low, making it difficult for local products to compete.

Fifth, feed costs continue to represents a major challenge for both the shrimp and tra fish (pangasius) farming industries.

Sixth, local shrimp products continue to compete with Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply, with oversupply likely to continue into the first half of the year, particularly as world shrimp production this year is forecast to surge by 4.8% to 5.9 million tonnes.

Ecuador and India are also striving to increase their market share in the US, China, the EU, and Japan, while simultaneously bolstering processed shrimp exports, although the proportion remains modest.

Seventh, with regard to pangasius products, inventory in the US, China, and EU markets is no longer a problem, with export prices expected to increase again in these markets.

Along with frozen fillets, the trend of importing value-added pangasius and by-products such as fish maw and pangasius patties continues to increase.

Eighth, the yellow card placed against illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing will continue to be a challenge for seafood products if it is not removed in 2024. This will cause exports to the EU to stagnate because procedures for confirming and certifying exploited seafood are still lacking due to inadequate human resources and infrastructure.

In line with this, industries such as tuna, squid, octopus, and marine fish are most affected. Regarding consumption, market demand focuses on cheaper product segments such as canned fish, raw fish for processing canned fish, dried fish, and dried shrimp.

Ninth, there will be an increased outsourcing trend after the Chinese seafood processing industry was accused of using forced labour and China's move to ban Japanese seafood imports caused Japanese factories to rush to the Vietnamese market to find processing partners.

Moreover, businesses may seek to intensify the import of raw materials for export production and increase processing for the Japanese and US markets.

Finally, it is forecast that Vietnamese seafood exports will gradually recover in 2024 and become more positive moving into the second half of the year.

With adaptation and adjustment to the market’s context, it is predicted that seafood businesses will help the industry's export sales recover to rake in US$9.5 billion to 10 billion in 2024.

Of the figure, the shrimp industry targets US$4 billion, with pangasius bringing in about US$1.9 billion and the remaining seafood products forecast to earn about US$3.6 billion to 3.8 billion.

In addition, firms may increase the import of raw materials for export production and increase processing for the Japanese and US markets.