CIEM sets out three economic scenarios for 2024
The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI)’s Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) presented three scenarios for the national economy in 2024 at the Vietnam Economic Pulse Forum jointly held by the institute and UN Development Programme (UNDP) in Hanoi on December 6.
Under the three scenarios, Vietnam’s GDP will grow 5.5%, 6%, and 6.5%, respectively, with the first most likely, said Nguyen Huu Tho, head of the CIEM’s department of economic analysis and forecasting.
The event, held under the theme "Leveraging Technology to Foster Prosperity in Viet Nam," brought together business leaders, scholars, experts, and policymakers to delve into the transformative potential of new technologies, Industry 4.0, and the digital revolution.
Economists shared the view that 2024 remains a tough year for the economy as its intrinsic difficulties this year are expected to last until next year, plus the world’s complex and unpredictable geopolitical situation.
Given this, they said monetary policy management will not be easy and require more flexibility.
Notably, the institute pointed out that traditional economic locomotives like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi will slow down, and there will be new ones such as Hai Phong, Quang Ninh and Thanh Hoa, yet not many and strong enough.
Therefore, to achieve high GDP growth in 2024, the CIEM research team proposed focusing on stabilising the macroeconomy and controlling inflation, with more attention paid to economic growth drivers.
The experts also stressed the need to improve institutions and the business environment, consolidate infrastructure, provide more support for production and business entities, and promote goods and services markets.
Mentioning the middle-income trap, UNDP Resident Representative in Vietnam Ramla Khalidi said: “Technological innovation, the energy transition and shifts in geopolitical strategies have created historic opportunities for Vietnam to accelerate economic transformation, penetrate new markets for higher value-added goods and services and increase the sophistication and domestic content of exports.
Vietnam’s ability to capitalize on these opportunities will have important implications for the country’s ability to sustain productivity growth at higher level incomes - in other words, to avoid the middle-income trap”.
UNDP Senior International Economist Jonathan Pincus shared valuable insights into the middle-income trap and technology policy in Southeast Asia, contributing a global perspective to the discussions.
