VEPR forecasts Vietnamese GDP growth at below 6% this year

Viet made the projection under the report on Vietnam's economic outlook for 2024, released at a policy dialogue held in Hanoi on May 17.

He pointed out that the Vietnamese economy has experienced a period of recovery regarding import and export activities and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.

Most notably, the nation has maintained a trade surplus for eight consecutive years, with import-export turnover reaching US$23.88 billion, up 25.2% over the same period from last year.

However, there remains a number of difficulties which have hindered Vietnam’s ongoing economic recovery. Accordingly, the number of businesses withdrawing from the market saw 1.5-fold rise compared to the number of newly-established firms, while credit growth remains at the lowest level over the past decade.

Furthermore, the economy has also faced exchange rate pressure, gold price escalation, and risks of rising inflation in the near future.

Other challenges include a delay in the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts in the world and hindrances in terms of the market, human resources, technology, capital, climate change, droughts, flood, saltwater intrusion, and inflationary pressure.

To accelerate the country’s economic recovery and growth efforts, the VEPR recommends increasing public investment disbursement, removing difficulties for local firms, continuing to reduce value-added tax (VAT), diversifying capital and investment channels, as well as improving the level of independence and autonomy by the economy and Vietnamese businesses.