Vietnamese economy forecast to expand at 5.5 % in Q1
The Vietnamese economy is forecast to expand at 5.5% in the first quarter of the year as manufacturing and trade regain momentum, according to the United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB).
Suan Teck Kin, head of UOB’s Research, Executive Director, Global Economics and Markets Research, was quoted by vneconomy.vn as saying that the manufacturing sector and international trade are showing signs of recovery. “We expect this pace to be sustained, especially in the second half of 2024, as the recovery in the semiconductor industry is firmer and global central banks are starting to operate more appropriate interest rate policies.
The drops in industrial production and export in February were because Tet holidays fell in the early days of the month. Production and business are returning to normal operation.
In the first two months, export totalled US$58 billion, up 17.6% against the same period last year. Import was up 17.7% to reach US$54.4 billion.
Industrial production grew by 5.7%, very positive, while the same period of last year saw a drop of 2.2%. Notably, the electronic components rose by 10.1%, compared to 0.7% a year ago.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index remains above the 50.0 no change mark with both output and new orders up for the second month straight.
UOB forecast the Vietnamese economy would expand at 6% in 2024, meeting the target set at 6-6.5%. Inflation is projected at 3.8%.
Regarding interest rate polices, UOB said that after a period of continuous rate cuts in 2023 with the economic recovery, the possibility of further interest rate cuts has decreased. It is likely that the State Bank of Vietnam will keep the refinancing rate at the current level of 4.5%.
