Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam’s GDP in Q1 to moderate to 6.1%
VOV.VN - Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth in the first quarter of the year to moderate to a still-strong 6.1% year-on-year from 6.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, according to its recent global research report titled “Vietnam – Q1 GDP to moderate amid rising inflation”.
The bank remains 2024 GDP growth forecast at 6.7% and a growth accelerating from 6.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year to 6.9% in the second half of the year.
According to the international bank, March data is likely to show a recover after Lunar New Year, supported by retail sales.
The bank expects retail sales growth rising to 9.2% year-on-year in March; export growth is likely to rebound to 5.2% year-on-year; and import growth at 5.0%. Meanwhile, the trade surplus may narrow to US$0.8billion.
Inflation may rise further to 4.2% year-on-year in March from 4.0% in February. Education, housing (construction materials) and food prices have driven inflation recently. Experts pointed out that a stronger recovery in FDI inflows would require faster GDP growth.
“Despite the likely Q1 slowdown, we think Vietnam’s recovery remains intact. However, we are cautious on the H1 growth outlook due to headwinds to global trade”, said Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank.
The bank expects the State Bank of Vietnam to keep the refinancing rate on hold at 4.5% through end of the third quarter and hike by 50bps in the fourth quarter, given concerns about growth - driven inflation.
